BLUE-04

Exploitability · 7/10 · Pool tag REG

Competent winner who opens wide, leads/raises flops liberally, but his stack-off threshold is the nuts; everything in between gets surrendered to a jam. User notes confirm: "min 3bets, leads a ton, does it with all sorts of bs" Hand 22.

Quick reference · glance between sessions

• If he barrels turn and you have any equity → jam, folds 4/4 (100%)High
• If he tanks 5+ min facing a bet → he's folding, call clockHigh
• If he flop check-raises or raises your cbet → he has it, fold non-nutHigh
• If he donk-leads small from straddle → wide/weak range, float IPMed
• If he calls flop + jams turn unprompted → nuts or near, fold one pairMed

Game breakdown

PLO (67 hands): wide opener, frequent straddle defender, flop-raise heavy, but folds turn to pressure. NLHE (1 hand, #51): insufficient sample — same flop-raise pattern shown but cannot generalize.

Bet sizing tells

• Pot-sized turn after flop x/c ($4975 H27, $2425 H12, $1600 H50) — strong made hand or huge draw; folds these to a jam if not nutMed
• Small flop cbets ($100-300 in $400+ pots, H7, H24, H49) — wide/probing, cheap continuationMed
• Flop check-raises always to ~3x, always credible — H12, H32, H50, H65, H66 all premiumHigh
• Preflop min-3bets and 4bets noted "all sorts of bs" — wideMed

Street-by-street aggression map

Preflop: opens wide, defends straddle ~6/7. Min-3bets per user note. Cold 4bets twice Hand 60 Hand 61.

Flop: raises/check-raises cbets at high rate — 6 of 15 (40%) faced cbet spots. High

Turn: barrels when ahead but folds to a jam 4/4 (100%) — H6, H20, H26, H27. High

River: jams only with nuts/near — H21 nut flush, H42 trips, H43 quads; check-calls medium (H11). Med

Range reconstruction · what he showed down

Flop-raise/jam holdings shown: A753hh nut flush draw H17, 8432cc flopped two pair H37, QJ98 turned gutshot H64, JJTT overpair+nut flush draw H65, KKK H43, 99xx set H67.

Conspicuously absent: clean bluff-jams. Every big jam shown had real equity.

Response to aggression

Faced river jam after his turn barrel: fold 4/4 (100%) — H6, H20, H26, H27. Faced flop raise: continues only with sets+/nut draws. Faced 3bet preflop: folded H62 to a 4bet. He does NOT hero-call rivers — H11 check-called $3300 because price/board only.

Timing tells

Long tanks (5-10 min) on turn = folding — H6 (folded), H20 (folded). High

Snap-folds when he has nothing (H16). User note: "call clock whenever someone is in tank vs him" H6.

How to exploit

1. Jam turns when he barrels and you have any equity/blockers — folds 4/4 (100%). Highest $EV exploit.
2. Call the clock when he tanks 5+ min — pressures him toward the fold he's already leaning to.
3. Fold one-pair to his flop check-raises — every shown was set+/nut draw (H12, H32, H50, H65, H66).
4. 3bet his straddle opens light — defends very wide, plays fit-or-fold post when not connected.
5. Don't bluff-catch his river jams — only jams river with nuts (H21 nut flush, H42 trips, H43 quads).
6. Float his small flop cbets IP — gives up turn often when not improved (H7, H24, H49).
7. Don't 4bet light — cold 4bets with real hands and you're crushed (H60, H61).

What we still don't know

True 3bet defense frequency. River bluff% — haven't caught one yet, possible he has zero. Behavior 4-handed deep where he opens 150bb btn — small sample suggests very wide.

Confidence map

HIGH × 6, MED × 9, LOW × 3. Overall MED-HIGH. The turn-fold-to-jam pattern is the strongest, most actionable read. More 3bet-pot data and more river-bet samples would upgrade the range work.